STL beat MTL 7–2. Expected goals were close to even (STL 3.4, MTL 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alexey Toropchenko scored at 0:25 of the first, moving STL’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Jake Allen allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:25 |  STL | Alexey Toropchenko from Oskar Sundqvist, Torey Krug | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:05 | STL | Colton Parayko from Kasperi Kapanen | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 10:23 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson | 2–1 | 24% → 36% |
| P1 15:20 | STL | Jordan KyrouPP from Robert Thomas, Torey Krug | 3–1 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 17:49 | STL | Nathan Walker from Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug | 4–1 | 88% → 97% |
| P3 0:31 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Nick Leddy, Jake Neighbours | 5–1 | 98% → 99% |
| P3 3:06 | MTL | Joel Armia from David Savard, Jayden Struble | 5–2 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 7:14 | STL | Jake NeighboursPP from Robert Thomas, Torey Krug | 6–2 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 15:33 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Robert Thomas, Torey Krug | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 18:20 | 1 | 3 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.22 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 13:10 | 2 | +0.79 | +0.10 | +0.51 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 15:43 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.09 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 17:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.02 | +0.38 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nathan Walker L | 14:14 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.43 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:15 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.04 | +0.41 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 13:34 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 23:05 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 18:24 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 20:08 | 5 | +0.11 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 16:24 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 16:23 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 13:19 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 16:07 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:56 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Rosen D | 14:03 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:08 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.24 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 0:53 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | +1.33 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Armia R | 15:02 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.27 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 1:34 | +0.21 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:18 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.04 | +0.43 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| David Savard D | 20:55 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:11 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:49 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:55 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Roy R | 11:28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 10:54 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:59 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 15:06 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 10:38 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 17:56 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:11 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 18:56 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Gignac C | 11:40 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 24:12 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 27:34 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | −3.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.