NSH beat ARI 5–4 in overtime. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan McDonagh scored at 1:36 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Juuse Saros allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:28 |  NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:10 | ARI | Travis Dermott from Jason Zucker, Alexander Kerfoot | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 11:39 | NSH | Roman JosiPP from Tyson Barrie | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 18:31 | ARI | Dylan GuentherPP from Clayton Keller, Jason Zucker | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 1:45 | ARI | Juuso Välimäki from Dylan Guenther, Barrett Hayton | 3–2 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 4:07 | ARI | Nick SchmaltzPP from Jason Zucker, Clayton Keller | 4–2 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 6:00 | NSH | Tommy NovakPP from Ryan McDonagh, Luke Evangelista | 4–3 | 7% → 24% |
| P3 9:59 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi | 4–4 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 1:36 | NSH | Ryan McDonagh from Tommy Novak, Gustav Nyquist | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juuso Välimäki D | 15:07 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.04 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.05 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Travis Dermott D | 19:38 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.16 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:26 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.15 | +0.49 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:03 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 8:45 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 12:42 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 14:02 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:17 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 13:26 | 3 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 24:23 | −0.32 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 19:14 | 2 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 16:12 | −0.35 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 26:20 | −0.37 | −0.23 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:03 | −0.38 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 24:32 | −0.44 | −0.25 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:33 | −0.48 | −0.23 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 61:36 | −1.24 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.33 | +0.51 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Roman Josi D | 26:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.15 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tommy Novak C | 13:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.17 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 24:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.26 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 22:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.40 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Michael McCarron C | 10:55 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 18:27 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 13:54 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 19:09 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 8:29 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 13:26 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:43 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:14 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 22:34 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 7:44 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 8:41 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:32 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 17:58 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 61:34 | −1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.