FLA beat WSH 4–2. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Lomberg scored at 14:28 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 51% to 88%. Darcy Kuemper saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:38 |  WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Rasmus Sandin, Connor McMichael | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 4:29 |  FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Gustav Forsling | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 14:03 | WSH | Anthony Mantha from Michael Sgarbossa, Aliaksei Protas | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 17:32 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 14:28 | FLA | Ryan Lomberg from Dmitry Kulikov | 2–3 | 51% → 88% |
| P3 19:06 | FLA | Eetu LuostarinenEN from Matthew Tkachuk | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:43 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.19 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:30 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.32 | +0.60 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 17:52 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Phillips R | 8:54 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 9:19 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 16:24 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 15:51 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 12:54 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 17:32 | −0.31 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 19:38 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 12:42 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.01 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 17:02 | −0.38 | −0.23 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 18:46 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 13:02 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 14:32 | −0.48 | +0.05 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 18:21 | −0.59 | −0.28 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| John Carlson D | 26:19 | −0.60 | −0.46 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 18:56 | −0.88 | −0.48 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 76:09 | +1.68 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:37 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.43 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:47 | 1 | 2 | +0.73 | +0.19 | +0.51 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:54 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +0.62 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 14:33 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.34 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:41 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:32 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 19:23 | +0.15 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 11:09 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:34 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 12:57 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:55 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 8:26 | −0.07 | +0.40 | −0.46 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:36 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 13:31 | −0.13 | +0.18 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 14:33 | −0.22 | +0.30 | −0.36 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:32 | −0.29 | +0.23 | −0.67 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 22:53 | −0.30 | +0.26 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 22:49 | −0.46 | +0.16 | −0.65 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | +0.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.