NJD beat COL 5–3. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: John Marino scored at 17:43 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 50% to 93%. Justus Annunen allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:23 |  COL | Mikko Rantanen from Jonathan Drouin | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:05 | NJD | Chris Tierney from Simon Nemec, Kevin Bahl | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P2 3:49 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Nico Hischier, Ondrej Palat | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 6:47 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Erik Haula, Timo Meier | 1–3 | 73% → 88% |
| P3 8:29 | COL | Cale Makar from Artturi Lehkonen | 2–3 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 8:58 | COL | Samuel Girard from Jonathan Drouin, Bowen Byram | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 17:43 | NJD | John Marino from Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt | 3–4 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 19:58 | NJD | Erik HaulaEN unassisted | 3–5 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Girard D | 18:38 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.03 | +0.87 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:59 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.05 | +0.42 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Cale Makar D | 27:17 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Parise L | 11:05 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 23:04 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 17:22 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 12:17 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 9:05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 16:37 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 10:13 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 4:49 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:33 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.29 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 5:50 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 16:24 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 18:58 | −0.20 | +0.18 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 20:28 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Miles Wood L | 14:50 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:53 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 58:40 | −1.43 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tierney C | 10:44 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.05 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| John Marino D | 23:42 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.05 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:57 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.15 | +0.78 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.54 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Curtis Lazar C | 13:06 | +0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.09 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 18:18 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 15:11 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 24:32 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 10:48 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Max Willman C | 8:38 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:42 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 9:48 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 15:43 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 17:06 | 1 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Simon Nemec D | 17:17 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Santeri Hatakka D | 15:28 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 19:18 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 14:49 | −0.48 | −0.02 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 60:00 | +0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.