NYI beat TOR 3–2. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Pierre Engvall scored at 17:58 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 50% to 93%. Ilya Sorokin saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:31 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Mike Reilly, Anders Lee | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 0:50 | TOR | Mitch Marner from John Tavares, Auston Matthews | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 2:50 | NYI | Kyle MacLean from Cal Clutterbuck | 2–1 | 46% → 66% |
| P3 15:12 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Morgan Rielly, William Nylander | 2–2 | 14% → 51% |
| P3 17:58 | NYI | Pierre Engvall from Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri | 3–2 | 50% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Barzal C | 23:01 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.09 | +0.61 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 16:11 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.20 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 7:11 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.07 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Matt Martin L | 7:28 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:59 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:24 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:15 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:13 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 18:25 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 15:27 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 23:15 | −0.31 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:36 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.11 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 20:49 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 10:08 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:19 | −0.36 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 9:52 | −0.38 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:54 | −0.42 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:41 | −0.42 | +0.10 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | +1.78 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 24:02 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.25 | +0.79 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 21:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.28 | +0.14 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Simon Benoit D | 16:39 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 9:35 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:59 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.23 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 16:42 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 16:17 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 17:40 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 10:48 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 15:26 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 7:28 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:58 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:28 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 8:38 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 24:43 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.35 | −0.58 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 10:52 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 17:15 | −0.25 | +0.25 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 24:55 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.30 | −0.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 58:19 | −0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.