VAN beat CBJ 5–4 in overtime. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 4:01 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Thatcher Demko allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:30 | CBJ | Alexandre TexierSH from Damon Severson | 1–0 | 46% → 66% |
| P2 6:14 | CBJ | Sean Kuraly from Alexandre Texier, Justin Danforth | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 15:20 |  VAN | Brock Boeser from J.T. Miller, Pius Suter | 2–1 | 13% → 30% |
| P2 17:27 | CBJ | Jake Bean from Egor Chinakhov | 3–1 | 71% → 88% |
| P2 18:24 | CBJ | Kirill MarchenkoPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski | 4–1 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 1:11 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 4–2 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 3:24 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Pius Suter, Quinn Hughes | 4–3 | 9% → 25% |
| P3 6:28 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller | 4–4 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 4:01 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:27 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.00 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 15:23 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.10 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 12:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.04 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 15:13 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.30 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 17:31 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 9:37 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 12:54 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 20:32 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 10:42 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 20:22 | −0.27 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:20 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 18:39 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 23:10 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 26:44 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.38 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 16:15 | −0.50 | −0.36 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:24 | −0.60 | −0.36 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 18:12 | −0.74 | −0.06 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 13:56 | −0.87 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 0:30 | +0.00 |
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 64:01 | −1.33 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 18:49 | 3 | 1 | +2.53 | +0.49 | +2.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Elias Pettersson C | 21:50 | 2 | 1 | +1.62 | +0.15 | +1.22 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Quinn Hughes D | 29:20 | 3 | +0.60 | +0.60 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 20:31 | 3 | +0.48 | +0.46 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.09 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 10:49 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 25:26 | +0.08 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:02 | +0.05 | +0.28 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 16:41 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 11:00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 13:03 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 9:56 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 16:14 | −0.09 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 15:12 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:17 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:56 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 21:36 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.25 | −0.45 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 12:30 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 13:15 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 63:56 | −1.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.