CAR beat ARI 3–1. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 1.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dmitry Orlov scored at 19:24 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 51% to 97%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:21 | ARI | Logan Cooley from Dylan Guenther, J.J. Moser | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 7:57 |  CAR | Martin NecasPP from Seth Jarvis, Brent Burns | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 19:24 | CAR | Dmitry Orlov from Jack Drury, Jalen Chatfield | 1–2 | 51% → 97% |
| P3 19:37 | CAR | Jesper Fast from Seth Jarvis | 1–3 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley C | 12:36 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.19 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Victor Soderstrom D | 13:20 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:48 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 7:08 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:49 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 17:00 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 18:09 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 15:37 | −0.24 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:19 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 12:46 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 18:49 | −0.34 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 16:32 | −0.41 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 15:53 | −0.43 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:18 | −0.43 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:06 | −0.52 | −0.15 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 26:03 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 22:31 | −0.73 | −0.53 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 26:51 | −0.81 | −0.64 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 60:00 | +0.98 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Orlov D | 16:40 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.07 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 17:54 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.45 | +0.44 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 10:36 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.33 | +0.44 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 22:07 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:44 | +0.44 | +0.50 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 16:44 | +0.37 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:33 | +0.30 | +0.33 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 14:38 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.28 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 21:20 | +0.23 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 22:58 | +0.19 | +0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 14:01 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 10:20 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 9:42 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:30 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:19 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 14:42 | −0.12 | +0.31 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 16:28 | 2 | −0.30 | +0.56 | −0.86 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:44 | −0.43 | +0.12 | −0.57 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 60:00 | +0.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.