DAL beat WSH 5–4 in overtime. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Thomas Harley scored at 3:27 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jake Oettinger allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:40 |  WSH | Anthony Mantha from Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 10:44 |  DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 11:07 | DAL | Thomas Harley from Jamie Benn, Sam Steel | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 6:24 | WSH | Rasmus Sandin from Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Trevor van Riemsdyk | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 11:00 | DAL | Mason MarchmentPP from Tyler Seguin, Miro Heiskanen | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 2:24 | DAL | Matt Duchene from Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin | 2–4 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 18:00 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 3–4 | 0% → 6% |
| P3 19:17 | WSH | Dylan StromePP from Anthony Mantha, Alex Ovechkin | 4–4 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 3:27 | DAL | Thomas Harley from Jason Robertson, Matt Duchene | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.68 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 23:04 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.21 | +0.86 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.10 | +0.65 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Strome C | 17:05 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.08 | +0.61 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 17:15 | +0.20 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 18:21 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 23:03 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 18:11 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 16:50 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 14:34 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 15:47 | −0.21 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 10:25 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 14:55 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 14:20 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:47 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.15 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 15:41 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 14:41 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 16:18 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 62:01 | −1.36 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harley D | 22:39 | 2 | +1.64 | +0.30 | +1.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 15:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.68 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 18:33 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.12 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:38 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 14:25 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 15:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.35 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Radek Faksa C | 13:20 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 19:56 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 20:07 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.27 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 19:08 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:39 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sam Steel C | 14:51 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:17 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 19:03 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 11:09 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:55 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 11:38 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:01 | −0.27 | +0.16 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 63:14 | −2.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.