STL beat SEA 4–3 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Pavel Buchnevich scored at 3:31 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Joey Daccord allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:39 |  STL | Oskar SundqvistPP from Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:16 |  SEA | Brian Dumoulin from Adam Larsson, Jaden Schwartz | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 3:55 | SEA | Oliver BjorkstrandPP from Alexander Wennberg, Jared McCann | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 6:42 | SEA | Eeli Tolvanen from Yanni Gourde, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 15:01 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Scott Perunovich, Pavel Buchnevich | 2–3 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 1:27 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Robert Thomas | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| OT 3:31 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Brayden Schenn | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:35 | 2 | 1 | +1.60 | −0.05 | +1.43 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:48 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.04 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.14 | +0.49 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Scott Perunovich D | 14:12 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 14:16 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:57 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:08 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 11:20 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 10:28 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:30 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 23:42 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:38 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 10:35 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 14:49 | −0.25 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 23:14 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:47 | −0.46 | −0.20 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 25:13 | −0.50 | −0.30 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 23:50 | −0.51 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 63:01 | +0.47 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Dumoulin D | 16:59 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.09 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 16:42 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.16 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 15:16 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.02 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 24:31 | +0.31 | +0.38 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 17:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.23 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matty Beniers C | 15:37 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 12:17 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:03 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 17:17 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 13:34 | −0.06 | +0.27 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 25:26 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:33 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:37 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:58 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:51 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:30 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 18:02 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 14:13 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 63:03 | −2.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.