COL beat LAK 5–1. Expected goals were close to even (LAK 2.3, COL 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Logan O'Connor scored at 7:44 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:44 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Samuel Girard, Alexandar Georgiev | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:55 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Miles Wood, Ross Colton | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 18:30 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Jonathan Drouin, Mikko Rantanen | 0–3 | 85% → 93% |
| P2 6:20 |  LAK | Kevin FialaPP from Alex Laferriere, Drew Doughty | 1–3 | 5% → 13% |
| P2 11:44 | COL | Josh Manson from Andrew Cogliano | 1–4 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 0:31 | COL | Cale MakarPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Ross Colton | 1–5 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:18 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.04 | +0.44 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandt Clarke D | 18:38 | +0.24 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 19:04 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:44 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 14:57 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 22:12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 16:44 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Samuel Fagemo L | 11:25 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 20:15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 11:31 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 17:09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan C | 12:35 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 23:48 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 14:59 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 17:04 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:18 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:19 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 8:54 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 40:00 | −0.30 |
| Cam Talbot G | 20:00 | −2.10 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan O'Connor R | 15:17 | 2 | +1.74 | +0.01 | +1.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Manson D | 15:51 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.02 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 25:25 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.04 | +0.48 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.10 | +0.74 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.08 |
| Bowen Byram D | 18:54 | +0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 20:36 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 9:11 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 16:47 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 14:00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 16:29 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 8:44 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 20:00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:05 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:17 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 16:52 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 15:47 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 7:33 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:24 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.07 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 59:30 | +1.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.