STL beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brayden Schenn scored at 1:54 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Casey DeSmith allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:14 | STL | Jake Neighbours from Robert Thomas | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:57 | STL | Pavel BuchnevichPP from Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P3 1:00 |  VAN | Pius Suter from Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes | 2–1 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 1:41 | STL | Alexey Toropchenko from Kevin Hayes, Nathan Walker | 3–1 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 5:42 | VAN | Pius SuterPP from Brock Boeser | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 19:08 | VAN | Pius SuterPP from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 1:54 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Nick Leddy | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:38 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.08 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.04 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:20 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.18 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:13 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.28 | +0.45 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 7:57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 15:13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 7:24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 11:35 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 12:52 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:36 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:50 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:24 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 26:05 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 15:21 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Kessel D | 19:01 | −0.22 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 21:18 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Torey Krug D | 18:45 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 26:55 | −0.57 | −0.24 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 61:54 | +0.56 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pius Suter C | 18:29 | 3 | +2.37 | +0.24 | +2.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 23:29 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 18:37 | +0.33 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 14:16 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:24 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.22 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:16 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 12:40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 8:28 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:06 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 13:23 | −0.06 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 24:24 | −0.06 | +0.26 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 19:42 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 14:45 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 8:35 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:31 | −0.16 | +0.16 | −0.34 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 13:58 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 22:19 | 2 | −0.27 | +0.33 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 15:14 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:41 | −2.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.