SJS beat NYR 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.5, SJS 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tomas Hertl scored at 1:29 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:55 |  NYR | Adam Fox from Alexis Lafrenière, Vincent Trocheck | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 1:38 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Adam Fox, K'Andre Miller | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P3 2:19 | SJS | Nico Sturm unassisted | 2–1 | 9% → 26% |
| P3 4:27 | SJS | Ryan Carpenter from Jan Rutta, Filip Zadina | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| OT 1:29 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Jan Rutta, Alexander Barabanov | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox D | 23:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.20 | +0.64 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:02 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.17 | +0.72 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 13:36 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 11:29 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 11:49 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 13:37 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 19:24 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 22:43 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:04 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:38 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:34 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 14:24 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:02 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 13:01 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 9:52 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:23 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 11:43 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:15 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 61:29 | −1.27 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 25:29 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.08 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 8:59 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.05 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 14:41 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.04 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 20:27 | +0.29 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 18:24 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 20:39 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| William Eklund L | 17:14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 20:49 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 7:26 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:32 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 14:46 | −0.09 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:16 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 6:04 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 20:17 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 12:54 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 23:09 | 2 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 14:39 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 20:42 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 61:29 | +0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.