STL beat CGY 4–3. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Saad scored at 19:12 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:38 |  CGY | MacKenzie Weegar from Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 8:27 |  STL | Brandon Saad from Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 11:13 | CGY | Noah Hanifin from Yegor Sharangovich, Chris Tanev | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 12:17 | CGY | Yegor Sharangovich from Jonathan Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 17:13 | STL | Brayden SchennSH unassisted | 2–3 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 6:56 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Robert Thomas, Nick Leddy | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 19:12 | STL | Brandon Saad from Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy | 4–3 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Saad L | 16:02 | 2 | +1.55 | −0.01 | +1.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:29 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.08 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:32 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.04 | +0.66 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:22 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 24:22 | 3 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:17 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Kessel D | 15:23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 13:08 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 13:07 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 20:05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 8:36 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 9:12 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:50 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:14 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:22 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 13:10 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:16 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 20:33 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | +0.06 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Hanifin D | 24:25 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 19:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.03 | +0.90 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:37 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.13 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:02 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 18:53 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 11:02 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 6:55 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 20:57 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 16:34 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 8:29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 10:09 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:54 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.67 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Schwindt C | 6:45 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:55 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:06 | −0.34 | +0.05 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:07 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 15:28 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 16:03 | −0.58 | −0.05 | −0.50 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:23 | −1.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.