NJD beat VGK 6–5 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tyler Toffoli scored at 2:35 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Logan Thompson allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:12 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:21 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 19:38 | NJD | Curtis Lazar from Erik Haula, Nathan Bastian | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 1:37 | NJD | Tyler Toffoli from Simon Nemec, Kevin Bahl | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 7:39 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Nicolas Roy, Kaedan Korczak | 2–3 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 10:00 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Ivan Barbashev, Nicolas Roy | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 10:48 | VGK | Chandler Stephenson from Mark Stone, Alec Martinez | 4–3 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 19:08 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from Jonathan Marchessault | 5–3 | 72% → 89% |
| P2 19:44 | NJD | Tyler Toffoli from Dawson Mercer | 5–4 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 9:14 | NJD | Curtis Lazar from Simon Nemec, Nathan Bastian | 5–5 | 21% → 52% |
| OT 2:35 | NJD | Tyler Toffoli from Luke Hughes | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:50 | 2 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.27 | +1.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 12:30 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.03 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:59 | 1 | 2 | +0.34 | −0.11 | +0.37 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 17:40 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:14 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 19:45 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:37 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 11:43 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Rondbjerg R | 13:54 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 11:21 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 23:03 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:11 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Brisson C | 10:16 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Byron Froese C | 13:13 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 18:53 | 2 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.44 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Howden C | 13:41 | −0.54 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 24:03 | −0.58 | −0.61 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 62:35 | −1.71 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:03 | 3 | +1.86 | −0.12 | +1.98 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:53 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.14 | +1.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 20:00 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.14 | +0.70 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 26:16 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 21:40 | 2 | +0.38 | +0.25 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 17:11 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Cal Foote D | 11:30 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 21:22 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.39 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Santeri Hatakka D | 17:22 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 15:39 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.21 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 23:26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 13:27 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 6:43 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Willman C | 5:48 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 18:51 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 18:27 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:20 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.51 | −0.97 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 15:47 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.17 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 62:35 | −1.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.