NYI beat DAL 3–2 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bo Horvat scored at 0:41 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ilya Sorokin saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:52 |  NYI | Alexander Romanov from Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 11:35 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Joe Pavelski, Radek Faksa | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 15:08 | DAL | Nils Lundkvist from Sam Steel, Joe Pavelski | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 5:23 | NYI | Hudson Fasching from Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 0:41 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Mathew Barzal | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Lundkvist D | 18:09 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.13 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 23:38 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.35 | +0.23 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 14:38 | +0.30 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 19:34 | +0.21 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 15:54 | +0.16 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.09 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 18:34 | +0.04 | +0.24 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 13:41 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 3:44 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 20:20 | −0.16 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 11:47 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:47 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 22:45 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 17:32 | −0.25 | +0.23 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 19:57 | −0.35 | −0.27 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 17:50 | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 17:23 | −0.40 | −0.28 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:47 | −0.42 | −0.18 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:03 | 2 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.57 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:41 | +0.28 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 20:38 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.38 | +0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 23:39 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.13 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hudson Fasching R | 13:55 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.11 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 20:29 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.46 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 18:05 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 26:29 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 23:40 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 10:23 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:36 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Samuel Bolduc D | 12:28 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:00 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:01 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 16:30 | −0.28 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 8:36 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:47 | −0.42 | +0.25 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 11:48 | −0.45 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 15:40 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:19 | −0.79 | −0.19 | −0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:41 | +1.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.