OTT beat PHI 5–3. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vladimir Tarasenko scored at 15:07 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 49% to 87%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:57 | PHI | Egor ZamulaPP from Joel Farabee, Cam York | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 16:40 | PHI | Egor Zamula from Joel Farabee, Cam Atkinson | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 4:04 | OTT | Zack MacEwen unassisted | 1–2 | 13% → 28% |
| P2 10:50 | PHI | Joel FarabeePP from Egor Zamula, Travis Konecny | 1–3 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 11:45 | OTT | Tim StützlePP from Shane Pinto, Thomas Chabot | 2–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P3 3:19 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Brady Tkachuk, Jacob Bernard-Docker | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 15:07 | OTT | Vladimir Tarasenko from Mathieu Joseph | 4–3 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 18:37 | OTT | Tim StützleEN from Jakob Chychrun | 5–3 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux R | 20:05 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.48 | +0.52 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 8:09 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.08 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:19 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.12 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:42 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 17:43 | 2 | +0.42 | +0.15 | +0.27 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:39 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:27 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 5:23 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 13:08 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Rourke Chartier C | 9:48 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 26:19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 14:33 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 16:49 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:39 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 13:02 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 27:43 | −0.28 | +0.29 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 17:24 | −0.41 | +0.22 | −0.42 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 11:11 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mads Sogaard G | 59:03 | −0.83 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Zamula D | 15:05 | 2 | 1 | +1.59 | −0.10 | +1.72 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joel Farabee L | 22:33 | 1 | 2 | +0.74 | +0.03 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 14:03 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 14:11 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 13:54 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 5:10 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 16:14 | −0.12 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 16:45 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 17:24 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 20:15 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 14:52 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 20:05 | −0.32 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 19:29 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 9:23 | −0.41 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 16:29 | −0.45 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 19:48 | −0.52 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 21:13 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.06 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 18:42 | 1 | −0.65 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 58:25 | −0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.