SJS beat ANA 5–3. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Burroughs scored at 17:33 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 53% to 76%. John Gibson allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 15:06 | SJS | Marc-Edouard Vlasic from Logan Couture | 0–1 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 15:21 | ANA | Jackson LaCombe from Adam Henrique | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 17:33 | SJS | Kyle Burroughs from Tomas Hertl | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 19:32 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from Ryan Carpenter | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P2 19:56 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Troy Terry, Leo Carlsson | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 12:15 | SJS | Jan Rutta from Fabian Zetterlund, Mike Hoffman | 2–4 | 85% → 97% |
| P3 15:11 | ANA | Mason McTavishPP from Troy Terry | 3–4 | 2% → 11% |
| P3 19:53 | SJS | Tomas HertlEN from Nico Sturm | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson LaCombe D | 19:41 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.14 | +0.91 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 20:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.29 | +0.48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Mason McTavish C | 17:18 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.24 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:06 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.20 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 19:22 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 14:44 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 13:28 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 9:23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 18:36 | −0.04 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 12:52 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:33 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:55 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 20:05 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 25:55 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 12:09 | −0.30 | +0.21 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 16:03 | −0.37 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 13:20 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:28 | 2 | −0.42 | +0.23 | −0.66 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 57:57 | −2.39 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Burroughs D | 14:58 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:23 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 18:45 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.09 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 21:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.09 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Henry Thrun D | 20:08 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 15:49 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 15:31 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 13:42 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 15:15 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 14:03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 16:25 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 8:07 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:56 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 10:45 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 26:58 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 7:41 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 15:22 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 24:11 | 1 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | +0.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.