WPG beat OTT 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (WPG 2.7, OTT 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers scored at 4:14 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:35 |  WPG | Mason Appleton from Nino Niederreiter, Dylan Samberg | 1–0 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 4:43 | OTT | Parker Kelly from Vladimir Tarasenko, Josh Norris | 1–1 | 25% → 52% |
| OT 4:14 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers from Neal Pionk, Vladislav Namestnikov | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Appleton C | 16:29 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.36 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:45 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.14 | +0.23 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic Toninato C | 11:41 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 12:31 | +0.12 | +0.20 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 15:15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 9:55 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:28 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 13:24 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 24:43 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.27 | −0.04 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 21:46 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:56 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.21 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 17:49 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:53 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 20:21 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 21:27 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 11:16 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:28 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 27:35 | −0.33 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 64:14 | +2.09 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rourke Chartier C | 10:32 | +0.40 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:06 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 15:13 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:23 | +0.03 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 14:00 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 15:42 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 16:59 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 20:04 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.18 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 10:03 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 6:29 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 17:14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:50 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 18:01 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 15:21 | −0.29 | +0.21 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 25:31 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 21:09 | −0.40 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 20:44 | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 21:21 | −0.61 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 64:14 | +0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.