EDM beat TOR 4–2. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan McLeod scored at 16:55 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 51% to 92%. Stuart Skinner saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:27 |  TOR | Auston Matthews from Mitch Marner, Pontus Holmberg | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 10:52 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Auston Matthews, Pontus Holmberg | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 15:41 |  EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm | 2–1 | 13% → 30% |
| P3 2:27 | EDM | Derek Ryan from Ryan McLeod, Mattias Janmark | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 16:55 | EDM | Ryan McLeod from Connor McDavid, Cody Ceci | 2–3 | 51% → 92% |
| P3 18:27 | EDM | Evan BouchardEN unassisted | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:33 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.17 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 23:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.22 | +0.70 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Jake McCabe D | 22:30 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 19:48 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 20:42 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 9:41 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 12:10 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 18:29 | −0.17 | +0.14 | −0.53 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 25:05 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 15:11 | −0.23 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 10:15 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 15:15 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Max Domi C | 11:19 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 9:15 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 12:47 | −0.38 | −0.28 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 18:41 | 2 | −0.45 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 11:21 | −0.48 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:38 | −0.63 | +0.07 | −0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 58:17 | +0.50 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McLeod C | 12:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.14 | +0.85 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:11 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.07 | +0.68 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 11:27 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.03 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 23:58 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 14:17 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 22:34 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.30 | −0.46 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 12:38 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 22:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mattias Janmark C | 10:10 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:16 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:23 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 7:14 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 16:32 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Hamblin L | 6:57 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 11:07 | −0.30 | +0.10 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:09 | −0.34 | +0.22 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 18:58 | −0.70 | −0.06 | −0.63 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 59:42 | +1.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.