CGY beat ARI 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (ARI 3.2, CGY 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Yegor Sharangovich scored on the power play at 4:43 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 54% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:22 | ARI | Sean Durzi from Nick Schmaltz, J.J. Moser | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 6:37 | ARI | Logan Cooley from Sean Durzi, Clayton Keller | 2–0 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 8:54 |  CGY | Blake Coleman from Rasmus Andersson | 2–1 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 9:57 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Martin Pospisil | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 4:43 | CGY | Yegor SharangovichPP from Nazem Kadri, Elias Lindholm | 2–3 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Durzi D | 22:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.14 | +0.39 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Clayton Keller R | 20:51 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 11:27 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.19 | +0.29 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 22:48 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 2:00 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 19:31 | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:24 | −0.13 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 22:31 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 20:23 | −0.22 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 16:09 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 19:16 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 11:00 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 14:09 | −0.39 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 17:27 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 26:05 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 21:06 | −0.44 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 20:29 | −0.52 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 64:43 | +0.33 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:17 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.26 | +0.40 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 18:46 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.09 | +0.32 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Connor Zary C | 17:37 | +0.32 | +0.27 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 9:19 | +0.19 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 14:39 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:49 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.26 | −0.17 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 20:03 | +0.05 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:14 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:41 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:31 | −0.01 | +0.25 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 7:48 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 24:36 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 10:49 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 11:53 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 13:15 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 11:05 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 21:32 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 64:43 | +0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.