COL beat OTT 7–4. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sam Malinski scored on the power play at 8:14 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 49% to 78%. Mads Sogaard allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:29 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 10:07 |  COL | Mikko Rantanen from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 1:21 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:27 | COL | Jason Polin from Fredrik Olofsson, Sam Malinski | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 7:21 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 11:04 | OTT | Jake Sanderson from Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk | 2–4 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 16:18 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard | 3–4 | 10% → 24% |
| P3 4:04 | COL | Miles Wood from Logan O'Connor, Devon Toews | 4–4 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 8:14 | COL | Sam MalinskiPP from Samuel Girard, Ryan Johansen | 5–4 | 49% → 78% |
| P3 12:24 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Miles Wood, Samuel Girard | 6–4 | 83% → 97% |
| P3 15:16 | COL | Devon ToewsEN unassisted | 7–4 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:55 | 2 | +1.00 | −0.27 | +1.22 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 17:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.04 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jason Polin R | 7:46 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.07 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 16:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.06 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Miles Wood L | 15:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.04 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jack Johnson D | 15:09 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 23:19 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.47 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.06 | +0.56 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 13:16 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Manson D | 19:01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 20:47 | 3 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:33 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 7:08 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 8:45 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Devon Toews D | 22:17 | 1 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:17 | 2 | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 22:45 | −0.57 | −0.36 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 12:27 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 17:27 | −0.72 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 60:00 | +0.62 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ridly Greig C | 18:01 | 2 | +1.27 | +0.19 | +1.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 19:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.29 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Drake Batherson R | 18:29 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.04 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Artem Zub D | 20:40 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 5:14 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:17 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 6:41 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:08 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 15:28 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:18 | 3 | −0.10 | +0.25 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:12 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 11:46 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rourke Chartier C | 13:46 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 13:43 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 18:39 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:26 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 21:04 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 20:28 | 3 | −0.42 | +0.27 | −0.43 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mads Sogaard G | 59:05 | −2.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.