LAK beat CAR 5–2. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Phillip Danault scored at 1:01 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 48% to 73%. Antti Raanta allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:24 | LAK | Trevor Moore from Phillip Danault, Vladislav Gavrikov | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:38 | CAR | Jordan Martinook from Seth Jarvis, Brent Burns | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 1:01 | LAK | Phillip Danault from Matt Roy, Vladislav Gavrikov | 2–1 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 2:21 | LAK | Alex Laferriere from Mikey Anderson, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 3–1 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 5:20 | LAK | Pierre-Luc Dubois from Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Mikey Anderson | 4–1 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 8:58 | CAR | Jack Drury from Stefan Noesen, Jalen Chatfield | 4–2 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 18:44 | LAK | Trevor MooreEN from Phillip Danault, Matt Roy | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Danault C | 21:03 | 1 | 2 | +0.79 | +0.08 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 14:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.04 | +0.69 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 |
| Trevor Moore L | 21:09 | 2 | +0.65 | +0.06 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 13:07 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.12 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 22:04 | 2 | +0.42 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 2:49 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:28 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 28:27 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 18:46 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 12:30 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 8:22 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 13:52 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:55 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:59 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan C | 8:06 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Quinton Byfield R | 16:14 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 19:13 | −0.44 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 18:29 | 2 | −0.49 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 60:00 | +1.53 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:32 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.04 | +0.72 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 14:21 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 10:46 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 18:44 | +0.16 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:36 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 23:23 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brendan Lemieux L | 7:21 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:24 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 13:08 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:13 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:52 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:43 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 12:16 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 7:48 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:19 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:33 | −0.47 | +0.08 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 22:58 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.13 | −0.72 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 14:57 | −0.57 | +0.09 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaniv Perets G | 12:46 | +0.10 |
| Antti Raanta G | 45:20 | −1.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.