DET beat TOR 4–2. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andrew Copp scored at 18:20 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Ilya Samsonov allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:32 | TOR | Pontus Holmberg from Morgan Rielly | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 15:39 |  DET | Dylan Larkin from David Perron | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 18:18 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Tyler Bertuzzi, Jake McCabe | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 2:46 | DET | Daniel Sprong from Alex DeBrincat | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 18:20 | DET | Andrew Copp from Michael Rasmussen | 3–2 | 50% → 94% |
| P3 19:41 | DET | Lucas RaymondEN from Ben Chiarot, Dylan Larkin | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Copp C | 16:59 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.09 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 14:20 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.06 | +0.56 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.14 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Moritz Seider D | 22:50 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 15:26 | +0.15 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 13:34 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 12:19 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:16 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Justin Holl D | 13:50 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 1:07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 10:35 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:44 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 16:08 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:09 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 20:39 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 20:51 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:54 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 59:32 | +0.76 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Holmberg R | 12:57 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.05 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 17:42 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.02 | +0.66 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 20:31 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 20:26 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:49 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:41 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 15:30 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 9:26 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:45 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:19 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 10:52 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 13:31 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:14 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 20:29 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 14:40 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 11:30 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 23:23 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:02 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.44 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 59:13 | −1.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.