NSH beat NYI 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.1, NSH 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alexandre Carrier scored at 19:52 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Juuse Saros saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 12:00 |  NYI | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Noah Dobson, Cal Clutterbuck | 1–0 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 15:08 |  NSH | Luke EvangelistaPP from Ryan McDonagh, Philip Tomasino | 1–1 | 14% → 51% |
| P3 19:52 | NSH | Alexandre Carrier from Jeremy Lauzon, Filip Forsberg | 1–2 | 51% → 97% |
| P3 19:59 | NSH | Juuso ParssinenEN from Roman Josi | 1–3 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:33 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 13:41 | +0.24 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 25:18 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 14:29 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 14:19 | +0.06 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 11:37 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:31 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hudson Fasching R | 12:12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 20:35 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:49 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 16:12 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 7:41 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:40 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 12:00 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:44 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:27 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 21:03 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 59:53 | −0.19 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista R | 12:34 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.19 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:03 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.15 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 15:11 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 12:11 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 24:43 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.29 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:39 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 13:00 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:20 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 16:19 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 14:07 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 23:31 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 11:30 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 11:58 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 20:29 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 11:17 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 19:12 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:00 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:53 | +1.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.