EDM beat MTL 2–1 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Evan Bouchard scored on the power play at 2:01 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Samuel Montembeault saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:43 |  MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P3 0:38 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Warren Foegele, Evander Kane | 1–1 | 23% → 49% |
| OT 2:01 | EDM | Evan BouchardPP from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 2–1 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:54 | 1 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.46 | +0.47 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 27:01 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.43 | +0.48 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 26:10 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.54 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 20:04 | +0.44 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:37 | +0.31 | +0.34 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:07 | +0.30 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 24:17 | +0.14 | +0.31 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 11:52 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 13:22 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 7:18 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Philip Kemp D | 2:03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Hamblin L | 7:52 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 11:36 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 15:40 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.37 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 12:18 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 11:17 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 16:32 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.25 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 25:42 | −0.81 | +0.43 | −1.08 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 72:46 | +0.79 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 19:24 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.19 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mitchell Stephens C | 7:27 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 15:37 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 5:31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 8:00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joshua Roy R | 13:03 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 17:58 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 14:00 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:12 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:34 | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 15:37 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 17:18 | −0.33 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 22:40 | −0.38 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 19:56 | −0.42 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 20:04 | −0.45 | −0.21 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 18:30 | −0.73 | −0.48 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 27:42 | 1 | −0.80 | −0.33 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:03 | −0.86 | −0.19 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.37 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 62:01 | +2.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.