CAR beat PIT 3–2 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 3.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brett Pesce scored at 1:41 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Antti Raanta saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:12 | CAR | Brett Pesce from Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:04 | CAR | Jordan Martinook from Jalen Chatfield | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P3 6:45 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust | 1–2 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 19:07 | PIT | Bryan RustPP from Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang | 2–2 | 4% → 50% |
| OT 1:41 | CAR | Brett Pesce from Teuvo Teravainen, Seth Jarvis | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust R | 20:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.16 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kris Letang D | 24:40 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 15:25 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Zohorna L | 4:33 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:42 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Colin White C | 7:21 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:52 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 24:09 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 13:42 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 15:26 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 9:47 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 13:20 | −0.31 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 7:04 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 14:58 | −0.34 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:28 | −0.44 | −0.10 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 24:04 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.13 | −0.70 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:59 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.09 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:50 | +1.31 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Pesce D | 19:36 | 2 | +1.39 | −0.09 | +1.46 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 14:51 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:14 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.07 | +0.30 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:13 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 16:34 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 12:32 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 5:25 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:42 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:25 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.25 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 11:27 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 9:15 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:39 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 22:27 | −0.18 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 9:06 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:26 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 23:39 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:21 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.03 | −0.52 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 21:11 | 1 | −0.73 | −0.15 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 61:41 | +1.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.