OTT beat SJS 5–4. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vladimir Tarasenko scored at 19:55 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Joonas Korpisalo allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:12 |  OTT | Claude Giroux from Brady Tkachuk, Artem Zub | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:58 | OTT | Thomas Chabot from Vladimir Tarasenko, Tim Stützle | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 12:35 |  SJS | Anthony Duclair from Alexander Barabanov, Mario Ferraro | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P2 3:53 | SJS | Marc-Edouard Vlasic from Anthony Duclair, Mikael Granlund | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:20 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from Mario Ferraro, Mike Hoffman | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:11 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 12:59 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Artem Zub, Tim Stützle | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 16:56 | SJS | Filip Zadina from Tomas Hertl, Mario Ferraro | 4–4 | 8% → 49% |
| P3 19:55 | OTT | Vladimir Tarasenko from Artem Zub, Tim Stützle | 4–5 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Labanc R | 11:30 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.10 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 16:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.11 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Filip Zadina R | 15:05 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.10 | +0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 21:02 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.36 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henry Thrun D | 19:32 | +0.18 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 18:06 | +0.04 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 8:39 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 13:28 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 15:47 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 17:57 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:31 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 28:12 | 3 | −0.12 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 12:11 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 14:26 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:04 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 12:52 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Bailey R | 12:50 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:55 | −0.45 | −0.08 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 59:59 | −1.62 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux R | 19:26 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.18 | +0.59 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 21:24 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.80 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.19 | +0.53 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.06 | +0.51 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zack MacEwen C | 7:38 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 21:46 | +0.14 | +0.30 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 17:55 | 4 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 18:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Artem Zub D | 20:47 | 3 | +0.06 | +0.32 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 7:47 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:12 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 12:28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 13:45 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 16:37 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 16:53 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 17:22 | −0.19 | +0.16 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Rourke Chartier C | 14:45 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 60:00 | −1.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.