VAN beat PIT 4–3 in overtime. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 3:05 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Tristan Jarry saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:44 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:31 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson | 2–0 | 64% → 76% |
| P1 16:20 | PIT | Marcus Pettersson from Jansen Harkins | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P1 17:31 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Filip Hronek, J.T. Miller | 3–1 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 6:05 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Jake Guentzel, Marcus Pettersson | 3–2 | 17% → 33% |
| P3 19:31 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 3:05 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Filip Hronek | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 19:08 | 2 | +1.36 | −0.14 | +1.50 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:54 | 2 | 2 | +0.97 | −0.23 | +1.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:43 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 20:23 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 14:07 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 21:44 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 19:20 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 8:19 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 11:38 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 8:50 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:46 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 13:32 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 16:05 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 23:25 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 15:07 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:04 | −0.49 | −0.14 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 19:27 | 3 | −0.68 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.09 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 20:52 | −0.81 | −0.57 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 62:56 | +0.81 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 25:30 | 2 | +1.64 | +0.21 | +1.14 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.15 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kris Letang D | 29:05 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.39 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 25:36 | +0.04 | +0.36 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 12:27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 3:08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 12:22 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:28 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 14:37 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 9:03 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 11:41 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:45 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:04 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 18:50 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 13:28 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 13:59 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 9:42 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 25:25 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.21 | −1.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 41:07 | +1.67 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 20:00 | −2.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.