CAR beat ANA 6–3. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Stefan Noesen scored at 14:30 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Pyotr Kochetkov allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:00 |  CAR | Brady Skjei from Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 16:15 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 0:25 |  ANA | Isac Lundeström from Brett Leason, Brock McGinn | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 1:57 | CAR | Jordan Martinook from Seth Jarvis | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 10:06 | ANA | Ryan Strome from Troy Terry | 2–3 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 10:53 | ANA | Frank VatranoPP from Adam Henrique | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:30 | CAR | Stefan Noesen from Michael Bunting, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 16:41 | CAR | Jack DruryPP from Stefan Noesen, Teuvo Teravainen | 3–5 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 9:54 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Brent Burns, Jordan Martinook | 3–6 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Strome C | 16:15 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.05 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:01 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.21 | +0.75 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:45 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.04 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brett Leason R | 13:41 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Troy Terry R | 19:11 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 19:26 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 10:17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Robert Hagg D | 11:57 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 10:29 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 19:46 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 25:25 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 16:25 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 20:31 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:10 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 18:38 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 12:18 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 16:44 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 13:04 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 20:00 | −0.40 |
| John Gibson G | 40:00 | −1.44 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei D | 22:35 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.18 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:30 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.10 | +0.80 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 11:39 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.77 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 15:41 | 1 | 2 | +0.64 | +0.15 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Stefan Noesen R | 15:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.12 | +0.52 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brett Pesce D | 20:28 | +0.14 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 17:07 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 13:40 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 8:54 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 17:28 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 21:27 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:06 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 15:19 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 13:20 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 17:08 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.44 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.17 | −0.66 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 26:04 | +0.43 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 33:56 | −1.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.