ARI beat BOS 4–3 in overtime. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Schmaltz scored at 4:04 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:41 |  BOS | David PastrnakPP from Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 8:12 |  ARI | Clayton KellerPP from Dylan Guenther | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 9:02 | BOS | Jesper Boqvist unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 16:30 | ARI | Dylan Guenther from Logan Cooley, Nick Bjugstad | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 0:52 | ARI | Matias Maccelli from Lawson Crouse | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 5:04 | BOS | Jake DeBruskPP from Hampus Lindholm, Morgan Geekie | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| OT 4:04 | ARI | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller, J.J. Moser | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk L | 14:04 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.15 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 11:50 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.26 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 25:52 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 22:37 | +0.30 | +0.46 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 27:11 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 21:28 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 13:05 | −0.08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 12:33 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Poitras C | 8:34 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Beecher C | 9:26 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 27:50 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 13:49 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 14:14 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 13:53 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 15:25 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 17:53 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 20:01 | −0.54 | +0.34 | −0.97 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:12 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.04 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 62:06 | +0.71 |
| Jeremy Swayman G | 1:24 | −0.84 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:46 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.27 | +0.69 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 20:16 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.36 | +0.46 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 16:37 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.18 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 23:00 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.57 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Kirkland C | 7:04 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 27:21 | +0.01 | +0.61 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:51 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 11:41 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 14:17 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 8:27 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 16:18 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 5:56 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 20:07 | −0.24 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 19:32 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 22:17 | −0.43 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.09 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:09 | −1.10 | −0.92 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:24 | 1 | −1.55 | −0.26 | −1.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 64:04 | +0.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.