COL beat BOS 4–3 in a shootout. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brad Marchand scored at 5:46 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 20% to 48%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:21 | BOS | Brad MarchandPP from Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:13 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:23 | COL | Logan O'Connor unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 10:05 | BOS | John Beecher from Danton Heinen, Brandon Carlo | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 17:56 | COL | Sam Malinski from Ryan Johansen | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 5:46 | BOS | Brad Marchand from Charlie Coyle, Matt Grzelcyk | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 20:21 | 2 | +0.77 | −0.06 | +0.85 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| John Beecher C | 9:16 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.03 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 20:48 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 11:50 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 21:52 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.30 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 7:30 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 13:46 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Oskar Steen C | 7:04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 14:48 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 15:21 | −0.13 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Poitras C | 12:38 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 21:08 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 15:34 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 26:05 | −0.28 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 30:50 | −0.41 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:34 | −0.60 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 21:52 | 1 | −0.71 | −0.03 | −0.27 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:54 | 1 | −0.80 | −0.03 | −0.38 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.35 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 65:00 | −0.34 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Malinski D | 15:20 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.04 | +0.47 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 26:55 | +0.69 | +0.02 | −0.32 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.06 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 11:10 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.37 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 13:17 | +0.38 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 16:25 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.19 | +0.38 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 18:34 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 31:17 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.24 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Caleb Jones D | 11:06 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:29 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 28:16 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 4:43 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Polin R | 4:22 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 9:02 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 4:53 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 29:50 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 30:22 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.30 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 13:37 | −0.46 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 30:23 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.27 | +0.26 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 65:00 | +1.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.