DAL beat MIN 4–0. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 2.0, MIN 1.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tyler Seguin scored at 1:28 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 73% to 90%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:16 |  DAL | Roope HintzSH from Tyler Seguin | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P3 1:28 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from Esa Lindell | 2–0 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 8:22 | DAL | Radek FaksaSH from Sam Steel | 3–0 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 9:57 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz | 4–0 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radek Faksa C | 16:21 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.11 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 16:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.08 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Jason Robertson L | 14:50 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.02 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 22:11 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 22:40 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 11:56 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 14:37 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 18:14 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 15:54 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 13:43 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 11:34 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 14:39 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 9:49 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 16:23 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 15:33 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.12 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 23:10 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 13:20 | −0.61 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 60:00 | +1.51 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 24:03 | +0.29 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Raska R | 7:46 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 14:30 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:59 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 20:38 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:44 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 13:22 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 16:41 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 20:06 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 10:24 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:09 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:25 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 14:49 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 11:04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 24:15 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:42 | −0.45 | −0.04 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:24 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 20:28 | −0.50 | −0.14 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 59:58 | −1.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.