DET beat ANA 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (DET 3.3, ANA 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Michael Rasmussen scored at 18:53 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Alex Lyon saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:20 | ANA | Trevor Zegras from Troy Terry, Adam Henrique | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:10 | DET | Dylan LarkinPP from David Perron, Shayne Gostisbehere | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 2:20 | DET | Joe Veleno from Andrew Copp, Ben Chiarot | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P3 3:55 | ANA | Trevor Zegras from Cam Fowler, Jamie Drysdale | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 18:53 | DET | Michael Rasmussen from Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond | 3–2 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Veleno C | 12:38 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.06 | +0.85 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 17:53 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.18 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 11:50 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.12 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 17:58 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:25 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 15:41 | +0.17 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 14:18 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 20:02 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 24:27 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 11:46 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 17:12 | −0.10 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 7:22 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 16:44 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.50 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 15:26 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 16:27 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 15:48 | −0.35 | +0.16 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 18:04 | −0.47 | +0.25 | −0.61 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 19:59 | −0.73 | +0.02 | −0.56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:00 | +1.18 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:00 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.10 | +1.56 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 19:07 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 17:19 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:40 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:40 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 17:00 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 20:35 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 6:19 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:38 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.26 | −0.42 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 18:12 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 17:37 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 16:22 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 13:33 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 7:25 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 15:10 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 18:33 | −0.89 | +0.01 | −0.49 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 18:24 | −1.01 | −0.14 | −0.62 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:06 | +0.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.