WSH beat LAK 4–3. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: John Carlson scored at 19:07 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Cam Talbot allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:22 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Nicolas Aube-Kubel, John Carlson | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:12 |  LAK | Adrian KempePP from Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 13:02 | LAK | Kevin Fiala from Phillip Danault, Mikey Anderson | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 15:35 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Alex Ovechkin, Max Pacioretty | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 1:01 | LAK | Kevin FialaPP from Quinton Byfield | 3–2 | 49% → 73% |
| P3 8:36 | WSH | Nicolas Aube-Kubel from Nic Dowd | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 19:07 | WSH | John Carlson from Beck Malenstyn, Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 3–4 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala L | 16:27 | 2 | +1.23 | +0.32 | +0.91 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 17:50 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.05 | +0.69 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:18 | +0.32 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 15:43 | +0.31 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 27:13 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.44 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:36 | +0.10 | +0.19 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 17:03 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 23:00 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.31 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 10:55 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 16:13 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 19:03 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 15:57 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 17:16 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:31 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 15:31 | −0.15 | +0.32 | −0.65 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 11:43 | −0.23 | +0.21 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 15:58 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 13:30 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:13 | −1.43 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 13:27 | 1 | 2 | +0.83 | −0.06 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Nic Dowd C | 17:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.04 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| John Carlson D | 24:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.16 | +0.67 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Strome C | 14:28 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.09 | +0.56 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 20:24 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 20:57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 7:55 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 12:54 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 16:06 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 16:30 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 16:55 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 21:28 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:29 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 12:46 | −0.40 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 15:13 | −0.54 | −0.41 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 16:24 | −0.55 | −0.26 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 15:05 | −0.55 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 17:22 | −0.73 | +0.01 | −0.62 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:00 | +1.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.