VGK beat NYI 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.5, VGK 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Pavel Dorofeyev scored at 17:11 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:25 |  VGK | Jack Eichel from Jonathan Marchessault, Alex Pietrangelo | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:13 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Bo Horvat, Anders Lee | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 17:11 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:41 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from Brett Howden, Keegan Kolesar | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 0:31 | VGK | Jack EichelPP from Lukas Cormier | 1–4 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 2:42 | NYI | Matt Martin from Casey Cizikas | 2–4 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 4:20 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from Keegan Kolesar | 2–5 | 94% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:42 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.12 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matt Martin L | 14:02 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.06 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Julien Gauthier R | 11:56 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 26:24 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:00 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 16:30 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Bolduc D | 17:08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 18:58 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 15:57 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:37 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:10 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 13:05 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:39 | −0.21 | +0.11 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 11:25 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:48 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 16:47 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.47 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 18:32 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.15 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anders Lee C | 15:30 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.12 | −0.61 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | −2.53 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Roy C | 13:07 | 2 | +1.73 | −0.00 | +1.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 18:20 | 2 | +1.01 | −0.23 | +1.22 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 12:23 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.06 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 16:28 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 22:02 | +0.13 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 16:11 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Cormier D | 19:46 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 13:50 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 14:57 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 19:22 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 14:59 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:12 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:19 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 19:13 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 18:38 | −0.29 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 19:43 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Grigori Denisenko L | 13:54 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:36 | −0.48 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 60:00 | +0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.