VAN beat NJD 6–4. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 0:41 of the second, moving VAN’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Thatcher Demko allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:41 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Filip Hronek, Quinn Hughes | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 3:33 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes | 2–0 | 66% → 82% |
| P2 4:37 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Elias Pettersson, Ian Cole | 3–0 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 6:43 |  NJD | Colin Miller from Curtis Lazar, Michael McLeod | 3–1 | 6% → 17% |
| P2 19:37 | NJD | Erik Haula from Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes | 3–2 | 11% → 28% |
| P2 19:49 | VAN | Conor Garland from Dakota Joshua, Carson Soucy | 4–2 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 2:35 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes | 5–2 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 11:07 | NJD | Colin Miller from Chris Tierney, Brendan Smith | 5–3 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 12:54 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Brendan Smith, Erik Haula | 5–4 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 18:49 | VAN | Dakota JoshuaEN from J.T. Miller, Teddy Blueger | 6–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller C | 18:29 | 2 | 1 | +1.76 | +0.16 | +1.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:51 | 2 | 1 | +1.65 | +0.23 | +1.38 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Conor Garland R | 13:02 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.06 | +0.75 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 15:15 | +0.19 | +0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 15:22 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 20:19 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 20:09 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 17:45 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 23:38 | 3 | +0.08 | +0.24 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 20:54 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 12:28 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 11:10 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 17:45 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 14:40 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:36 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nils Aman C | 11:29 | −0.55 | +0.07 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 14:44 | −0.76 | +0.14 | −0.92 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 13:24 | 1 | 1 | −0.93 | +0.01 | −0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 60:00 | −2.24 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Miller D | 17:09 | 2 | +1.87 | −0.06 | +1.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 19:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.09 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Nico Hischier C | 20:07 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.24 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 11:00 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 12:56 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 15:38 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 18:14 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Graeme Clarke R | 9:32 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 17:26 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 18:30 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 22:54 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 16:15 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 23:32 | −0.27 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 11:07 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 22:58 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 9:34 | −0.33 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:41 | −0.40 | −0.09 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:18 | −0.46 | −0.17 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Daws G | 58:47 | −0.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.