MIN beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 3.0, CBJ 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Marco Rossi scored at 3:05 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:09 |  CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Jake Bean, Adam Boqvist | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:48 |  MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Brock Faber, Joel Eriksson Ek | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 0:17 | CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Kirill Marchenko | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 10:15 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Mats Zuccarello, Brock Faber | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 14:15 | CBJ | Cole SillingerPP from Adam Boqvist | 2–3 | 53% → 87% |
| P3 18:28 | MIN | Marcus JohanssonPP from Ryan Hartman | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 3:05 | MIN | Marco Rossi from Matt Boldy, Brock Faber | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy L | 22:27 | 2 | 1 | +1.39 | +0.05 | +1.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Marco Rossi C | 22:37 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.06 | +0.63 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:53 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.17 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 18:14 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 10:15 | +0.17 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 10:06 | +0.17 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 25:30 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Faber D | 30:12 | 3 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 23:34 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Raska R | 6:32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:49 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nic Petan C | 4:22 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 13:32 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:33 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 21:24 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 12:50 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 11:08 | −0.35 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 24:15 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.24 | −0.85 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 63:01 | −0.02 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Sillinger C | 19:07 | 3 | +1.93 | −0.12 | +2.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 8:01 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 19:51 | 2 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 9:17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:21 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 19:32 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 20:40 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 16:03 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:45 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:58 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 15:51 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| David Jiricek D | 17:13 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 14:50 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 20:24 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 17:25 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 14:27 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 21:12 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 18:16 | −0.67 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 63:05 | −0.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.