STL beat CAR 2–1 in a shootout. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nathan Walker scored at 11:04 of the first, moving STL’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Jordan Binnington saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:04 | STL | Nathan Walker from Oskar Sundqvist, Torey Krug | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 13:17 |  CAR | Teuvo TeravainenPP from Jack Drury | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Walker L | 7:28 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:42 | +0.73 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.06 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 15:41 | +0.56 | −0.46 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:38 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 12:37 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:33 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 26:17 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 19:43 | −0.27 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 13:13 | −0.28 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 27:16 | −0.29 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:04 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 17:57 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 23:56 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.31 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jakub Vrana L | 11:03 | −0.45 | −0.41 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 21:42 | −0.55 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.30 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:29 | −0.68 | −0.28 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 20:32 | −0.73 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:52 | −0.74 | −0.09 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 64:58 | +2.84 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:35 | +0.88 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.06 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:13 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.34 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.44 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 24:20 | +0.54 | +0.70 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:28 | +0.28 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vasily Ponomarev C | 8:52 | +0.26 | +0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 22:34 | +0.09 | +0.37 | −0.32 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 17:04 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 13:57 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 16:17 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 7:25 | −0.01 | +0.35 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 6:20 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 16:07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 16:32 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 23:35 | −0.18 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 21:10 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 19:01 | −0.34 | +0.43 | −0.61 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 18:07 | −0.43 | +0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.44 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:23 | −0.84 | +0.17 | −0.67 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 65:00 | +0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.