DET beat LAK 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (DET 3.7, LAK 3.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Adrian Kempe scored at 15:43 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 12% to 51%. Alex Lyon saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:50 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Alex Laferriere, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:18 | LAK | Matt Roy from Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P2 9:59 |  DET | Robby Fabbri from Olli Maatta, Daniel Sprong | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 17:21 | DET | Jeff Petry from Dylan Larkin, Joe Veleno | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 5:24 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Daniel Sprong, Patrick Kane | 3–2 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 15:43 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex Laferriere | 3–3 | 12% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Fabbri C | 11:43 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.15 | +1.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 19:28 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.08 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 20:06 | +0.39 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 12:40 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 20:09 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.33 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.22 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 25:58 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 12:51 | +0.09 | +0.18 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 19:44 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 14:27 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 8:34 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:59 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:17 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 13:28 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 22:20 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 23:04 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 11:14 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.16 | −0.52 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 20:32 | −0.45 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 18:26 | −0.46 | −0.09 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 65:00 | +1.64 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Kempe R | 21:35 | 2 | +1.16 | +0.17 | +1.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.27 | |
| Matt Roy D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.03 | +0.53 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:09 | +0.18 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 16:20 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 12:33 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 15:20 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 14:13 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:16 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 12:03 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 9:12 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 18:21 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 8:55 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:36 | −0.33 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:59 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:06 | −0.34 | +0.20 | −0.55 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 10:38 | −0.50 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 28:48 | −0.64 | −0.30 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 16:54 | −0.76 | −0.03 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 65:00 | −1.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.