DET beat SJS 5–3. DET lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Perron scored at 18:30 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Kaapo Kahkonen allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:11 |  DET | Daniel SprongPP from Lucas Raymond, Shayne Gostisbehere | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:50 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from Mikael Granlund, Mike Hoffman | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 6:07 | DET | J.T. Compher from Justin Holl, Olli Maatta | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 18:54 | SJS | Justin Bailey from Mario Ferraro | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 9:24 | SJS | Alexander Barabanov from Mario Ferraro, Ty Emberson | 2–3 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 10:55 | DET | David PerronPP from Daniel Sprong, Lucas Raymond | 3–3 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 18:30 | DET | David Perron from Lucas Raymond | 4–3 | 50% → 94% |
| P3 19:54 | DET | Michael RasmussenEN unassisted | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Perron L | 16:42 | 2 | +1.78 | −0.00 | +1.59 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 17:48 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.06 | +0.91 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 11:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.08 | +0.41 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Lucas Raymond L | 16:33 | 3 | +0.26 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Walman D | 20:31 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 10:29 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:33 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 24:18 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 17:18 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:17 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 14:22 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:39 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 11:46 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 13:49 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 15:26 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:03 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 12:47 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 15:40 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:00 | −0.03 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Bailey R | 9:18 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.10 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 11:50 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.21 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 20:55 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.12 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 12:08 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:56 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.22 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 18:28 | +0.03 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 15:34 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:24 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Henry Thrun D | 17:56 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 10:25 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 21:59 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 14:12 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:40 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 10:32 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 8:59 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:28 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| William Eklund L | 16:12 | −0.45 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:56 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.13 | −0.63 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 59:13 | −2.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.