MTL beat DAL 4–3. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kaiden Guhle scored at 9:46 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Scott Wedgewood allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:11 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Wyatt Johnston | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:14 |  MTL | Nick Suzuki from Juraj Slafkovský, Jordan Harris | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 9:46 | MTL | Kaiden Guhle from Johnathan Kovacevic, Michael Pezzetta | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 6:54 | MTL | Jordan Harris unassisted | 3–1 | 67% → 83% |
| P3 6:45 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Sean Monahan, Nick Suzuki | 4–1 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 16:12 | DAL | Wyatt JohnstonPP from Evgenii Dadonov, Mason Marchment | 4–2 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 18:00 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment | 4–3 | 0% → 7% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Harris D | 14:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.14 | +0.46 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.01 | +0.45 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Cole Caufield R | 18:11 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.08 | +0.28 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 19:17 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.09 | +0.44 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:14 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 12:32 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 10:46 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 12:48 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:29 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 11:22 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 18:15 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 20:42 | −0.17 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 17:50 | −0.18 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 20:23 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.09 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 15:05 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 20:01 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:04 | −0.28 | −0.29 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:18 | −0.55 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | +0.95 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston C | 15:25 | 1 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.05 | +0.75 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Jason Robertson L | 21:16 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.33 | +0.66 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 15:32 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.13 | +0.30 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 20:24 | +0.09 | +0.33 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 16:31 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 17:07 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 18:53 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 16:36 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 27:32 | −0.01 | +0.27 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 17:59 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 13:45 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 20:45 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:13 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 8:46 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 7:26 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 9:35 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 20:18 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 20:13 | −0.46 | +0.28 | −0.49 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 53:58 | −2.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.