COL beat SJS 3–1. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 1.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin scored on the power play at 16:31 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 91%. Kaapo Kahkonen saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:58 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 16:53 | SJS | Tomas HertlPP from Mikael Granlund, Calen Addison | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 16:31 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Jack Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–2 | 52% → 91% |
| P3 18:53 | COL | Josh MansonEN from Devon Toews, Ryan Johansen | 1–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:25 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.29 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:53 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 15:06 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 15:54 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 9:37 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 4:09 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 24:21 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 11:33 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 12:06 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 25:07 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 14:04 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 24:10 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 13:35 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 20:51 | −0.26 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 10:59 | −0.27 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 17:40 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 18:11 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 11:21 | −0.57 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 58:55 | +1.05 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:59 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.29 | +0.59 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 24:49 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.29 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Devon Toews D | 24:15 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.27 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:50 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.32 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Josh Manson D | 18:25 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 4:56 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 14:12 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 22:52 | +0.10 | +0.28 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 11:58 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 5:09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 16:18 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 4:23 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 18:50 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 13:51 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 13:26 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 13:48 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:51 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 25:12 | −0.23 | +0.30 | −0.27 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 59:48 | −0.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.