CGY beat PHI 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (PHI 2.8, CGY 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dennis Gilbert scored at 7:29 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 81%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:44 | PHI | Rasmus Ristolainen from Ryan Poehling, Joel Farabee | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 18:21 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Andrew Mangiapane, Dennis Gilbert | 1–1 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 7:29 | CGY | Dennis Gilbert from Jonathan Huberdeau, Blake Coleman | 1–2 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 14:29 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Andrew Mangiapane | 1–3 | 88% → 98% |
| P3 16:36 | PHI | Bobby BrinkPP from Cam Atkinson, Travis Konecny | 2–3 | 1% → 9% |
| P3 17:42 | CGY | Blake ColemanEN from Andrew Mangiapane | 2–4 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 18:38 | PHI | Egor ZamulaPP from Travis Konecny, Morgan Frost | 3–4 | 0% → 5% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Zamula D | 15:47 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.86 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 15:47 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.06 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 16:30 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.14 | +0.45 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:12 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:41 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 15:56 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 17:44 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:38 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 12:49 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 14:41 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 20:16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 15:49 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 17:36 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:10 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:54 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 14:45 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 18:38 | 2 | −0.59 | −0.05 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 18:01 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.04 | −0.60 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 57:06 | +0.05 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Gilbert D | 13:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.14 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:16 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.16 | +0.59 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 12:22 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 21:09 | +0.15 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 9:47 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 14:31 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 20:34 | 1 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:17 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 8:12 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 8:38 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 11:25 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 19:28 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 9:16 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:38 | 3 | −0.21 | +0.23 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:17 | −0.22 | +0.18 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:16 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:42 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:40 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.44 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | +0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.