PIT beat NYI 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 3.7, PIT 3.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Lars Eller scored at 2:18 of the first, moving PIT’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Alex Nedeljkovic saved 3.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:18 |  PIT | Lars Eller from Jansen Harkins, Valtteri Puustinen | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 2:20 | PIT | Noel Acciari from Drew O'Connor | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P3 13:51 | NYI | Samuel Bolduc unassisted | 1–2 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 19:17 | PIT | Lars EllerEN unassisted | 1–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Bolduc D | 12:22 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 17:58 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 15:41 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 11:06 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 20:19 | +0.10 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:39 | −0.00 | +0.32 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:01 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 27:19 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 12:50 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 15:11 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:05 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 12:58 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:17 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:58 | −0.27 | +0.18 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 8:42 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:30 | −0.41 | +0.23 | −0.63 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:41 | −0.53 | +0.04 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:46 | −0.74 | +0.08 | −0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 59:02 | +1.74 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller C | 14:41 | 2 | +0.60 | −0.16 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 12:46 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.10 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 7:34 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 24:35 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:04 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Ludvig D | 9:25 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 12:46 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 12:01 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 19:30 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:12 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.73 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.02 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 7:58 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 25:18 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:41 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 8:19 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:10 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.23 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:00 | −0.47 | +0.08 | −0.57 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 18:04 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:56 | −0.55 | −0.06 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 60:00 | +3.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.