WPG beat MIN 3–2. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dominic Toninato scored on the power play at 7:32 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 49% to 78%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:07 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Jared Spurgeon, Frederick Gaudreau | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 2:08 | WPG | Adam Lowry from Mason Appleton, Dylan DeMelo | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 3:56 | MIN | Frederick GaudreauPP from Marcus Johansson, Nic Petan | 1–2 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 4:52 | WPG | Vladislav NamestnikovPP from Cole Perfetti, Nate Schmidt | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 7:32 | WPG | Dominic ToninatoPP from Brenden Dillon, Neal Pionk | 3–2 | 49% → 78% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Toninato C | 10:23 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.21 | +0.54 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 15:22 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.18 | +0.37 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:20 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.07 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 18:02 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.17 | −0.09 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:33 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 14:10 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 9:52 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 18:31 | +0.15 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 19:47 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 16:54 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 11:25 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 9:47 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:48 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:32 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 14:11 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 20:05 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:29 | −0.13 | +0.15 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:12 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 59:40 | −0.12 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.29 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:14 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.11 | +0.40 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 12:53 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:09 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 18:24 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 25:26 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.17 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Faber D | 21:58 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Petan C | 13:51 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:04 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 12:18 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 16:59 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 18:58 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:03 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Lucchini C | 10:15 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:55 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 20:41 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 16:51 | −0.37 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 15:20 | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 58:11 | −0.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.