EDM beat LAK 3–2 in a shootout. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl scored at 15:29 of the second, moving EDM’s win probability from 25% to 47%. Cam Talbot allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:44 | LAK | Kevin FialaPP from Adrian Kempe, Drew Doughty | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 18:49 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 5:35 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 15:29 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Connor McDavid | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 25:52 | 1 | 1 | +1.59 | +0.27 | +0.18 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | +0.71 |
| Derek Ryan C | 12:47 | +1.40 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 23:48 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.84 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:56 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 22:41 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 29:01 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 11:30 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 7:00 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 9:53 | +0.02 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 13:25 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 24:13 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Hamblin L | 5:17 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:23 | −0.08 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 15:11 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:09 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Raphael Lavoie C | 5:26 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 14:26 | −0.38 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:46 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.17 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 65:00 | +0.30 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Kempe R | 19:06 | 1 | 1 | +1.62 | +0.03 | +0.23 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.84 |
| Trevor Moore L | 21:01 | +0.32 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:32 | +0.16 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 17:26 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 9:24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 19:28 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 14:49 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 11:40 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 13:09 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:40 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.07 | +0.33 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 8:46 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 30:26 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 23:50 | −0.41 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:27 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 7:56 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 21:08 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.28 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.44 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 21:48 | −0.49 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:37 | −0.71 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 64:41 | −1.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.