FLA beat MTL 4–1. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Eetu Luostarinen scored on the power play at 7:34 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 53% to 81%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:05 |  FLA | Eetu LuostarinenPP from Evan Rodrigues, Sam Bennett | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 7:01 |  MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 7:34 | FLA | Eetu LuostarinenPP from Aaron Ekblad, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 1–2 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 15:26 | FLA | Sam Bennett from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Carter Verhaeghe | 1–3 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 17:13 | FLA | Carter VerhaegheEN from Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad | 1–4 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 19:29 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 22:36 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 18:22 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:50 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 18:31 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:15 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 19:13 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 7:07 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 19:16 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 17:55 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 17:17 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 18:22 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 8:37 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 8:19 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 19:42 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:59 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:39 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:01 | −0.43 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 58:56 | −0.36 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 19:40 | 2 | +1.41 | +0.17 | +1.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 14:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.10 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:31 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.37 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 17:04 | +0.39 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:30 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 21:11 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:08 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 14:41 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:39 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 19:56 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 15:47 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 21:56 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lockwood R | 10:20 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 17:08 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 11:44 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 14:51 | −0.30 | +0.08 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 16:46 | −0.35 | +0.11 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 13:23 | 1 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 59:38 | −0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.