DET beat NSH 5–4 in overtime. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Lucas Raymond scored at 2:13 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Juuse Saros allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:02 |  DET | Dylan LarkinSH unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:43 |  NSH | Filip Forsberg from Gustav Nyquist | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:38 | DET | Jake Walman from Michael Rasmussen, Robby Fabbri | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 11:40 | NSH | Gustav NyquistSH unassisted | 2–2 | 25% → 46% |
| P2 13:49 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Tommy Novak | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 9:29 | DET | Alex DeBrincat from J.T. Compher, Patrick Kane | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 11:13 | DET | Jake Walman from Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane | 3–4 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 12:24 | NSH | Gustav Nyquist from Filip Forsberg, Luke Schenn | 4–4 | 15% → 49% |
| OT 2:13 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Alex DeBrincat, Jake Walman | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Nyquist R | 17:43 | 2 | 1 | +1.79 | +0.16 | +1.61 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:31 | 2 | 1 | +1.26 | +0.06 | +1.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:43 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 17:22 | +0.24 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 26:14 | +0.20 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 23:13 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 11:51 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 17:53 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 14:46 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 10:32 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 20:54 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 11:33 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:27 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 16:36 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 17:07 | −0.26 | +0.14 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 13:28 | −0.38 | +0.07 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 13:12 | −0.38 | +0.16 | −0.53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:34 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.44 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 62:13 | −2.39 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Walman D | 19:31 | 2 | 1 | +1.54 | −0.08 | +1.64 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 15:06 | 1 | 2 | +0.91 | +0.12 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lucas Raymond L | 20:45 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.14 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:22 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.15 | +0.58 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 11:02 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 22:51 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 6:46 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 9:14 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 15:03 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 22:22 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 19:37 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 16:28 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:16 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 17:07 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:11 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 16:07 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 14:56 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 15:55 | −0.50 | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 62:13 | +0.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.