CAR beat MTL 5–3. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Andrei Svechnikov scored at 13:51 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 51% to 87%. Cayden Primeau allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:35 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Brent Burns, Sebastian Aho | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:40 | CAR | Jesper Fast from Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 13:51 | MTL | Mitchell Stephens from Michael Pezzetta, Jayden Struble | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 19:56 | MTL | Mike MathesonPP from Sean Monahan, Cayden Primeau | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:29 | CAR | Jesper Fast from Stefan Noesen, Jack Drury | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 0:25 | MTL | Josh Anderson unassisted | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 13:51 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Brett Pesce, Sebastian Aho | 3–4 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 19:41 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovEN from Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns | 3–5 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Stephens C | 9:08 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 15:55 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.30 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:13 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.33 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:47 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 17:13 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 9:01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:48 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 17:13 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 16:38 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 15:38 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 15:22 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:40 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:01 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 24:02 | −0.28 | −0.46 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| David Savard D | 22:46 | −0.31 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 19:59 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:26 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:53 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 59:52 | −1.28 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Fast R | 16:09 | 2 | +1.78 | +0.20 | +1.60 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:07 | 3 | +1.74 | +0.23 | +1.69 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 20:48 | 3 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:17 | +0.27 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 19:47 | +0.23 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 21:53 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 16:32 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:07 | 4 | +0.16 | +0.22 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:07 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 14:16 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 16:51 | +0.02 | +0.24 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 10:58 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 15:27 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:41 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 12:16 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:43 | −0.45 | +0.19 | −0.56 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 23:02 | −0.49 | +0.14 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 14:34 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.54 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 60:00 | −0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.