SEA beat CGY 2–1. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alexander Wennberg scored at 6:00 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 76%. Chris Driedger saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:24 | SEA | Kailer Yamamoto from Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:09 | CGY | Nazem KadriPP from Yegor Sharangovich | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P3 6:00 | SEA | Alexander Wennberg from Jared McCann, Will Borgen | 2–1 | 48% → 76% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:16 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.05 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:40 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.39 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Devin Shore C | 7:28 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 15:20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:46 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 21:09 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 16:12 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:10 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:00 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 17:03 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:04 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 10:08 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 16:18 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 20:27 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 16:10 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 24:08 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 15:34 | −0.48 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 16:00 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Driedger G | 60:00 | +2.74 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:22 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.38 | +0.41 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.12 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:35 | +0.30 | +0.55 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 27:35 | +0.29 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:01 | +0.21 | +0.27 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 11:10 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 19:32 | +0.07 | +0.32 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:33 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 22:29 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 20:11 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.27 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 8:42 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 6:28 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 9:20 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 6:17 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:27 | −0.25 | +0.23 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 11:21 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 19:36 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:24 | −0.51 | +0.11 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 57:54 | −0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.